All eyes on Syria – Can HTS rebuild it and dispel international fears?
Syria stands at a crossroads. With Assad gone, can Syria under the HTS stewardship resurrect itself as a thriving Arab state, or will it drift further to become the nerve center of a rejuvenated ISIS?
HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), the black-listed military outfit with ideological leaning towards the IS, has forced out Assad in a lightening sweep. With its total grip over the government in Damascus, HTS now strives to rebuild the battle-scarred country. Quite understandably, the rebuilding job needs international monetary help and goodwill. To qualify for this, HTS has to demonstrate that it has irreversibly shed its IS mindset.
The HTS leaders have quickly realized even a slight trace of IS links will invite the wrath of the whole world. IS’s terror-based ideology must be abandoned for good. Being pragmatic, the leaders of the interim government in Damascus have unequivocally reiterated that the links with IS have been severed once and for all. Now, the leadership has underlined its resolve to revive the battle-torn country and govern it well. The whole world is all ears to such declarations from Damascus.
Understandably, the United States will seriously consider building a new bridge with Damascus. There are sanctions galore on Syrian government and its various entities that the U.S. will have to waive. Such a step will to pave the way for the global community to on-board Syria. As per the latest news, the U.S. has just permitted humanitarian aid to go to Syria. Hopefully, this will lead to many more relaxations by the U.S. For Trump who will be in the White House in a few weeks, waiving sanctions on Syria will pose a dilemma. During his first presidential term Trump had boastfully declared that the IS had been pulverized by aerial bombing by American air force. This claim proved unfounded after the scattered IS outfits resurfaced to pursue their terror tactics, although in a limited scale. Trump will struggle to erase such memories before agreeing to lift sanctions on Syria.
The HTS outfit, formed in 2018, is also dreaded by other wealthy Arab nations. They, too, are treading cautiously in extending a hand of friendship to the Damascus government facing daunting problems of governance.
Syria has been ruled by the Assad family since 1971. The dominant Ba’ath Party made the Late Hafez al-Assad. He died in 2000 leading to the ascent of his son Basher al-Assad to the presidential throne. Both the father and son were ruthless despots. After the famous Arab Spring that was marked by eviction of autocratic rulers in so many Arab countries, a chorus of protests rose in Syriza to oust President Assad, but the latter dug in his heels by thwarting the anti-government demonstrations with a heavy hand. This led to a cataclysmic upheaval in the country as a number of militias sprang up in different parts of the country. Their common enemy was Assad’s government in Damascus, but they ferociously fought against each other too. The rampant violence disrupted the daily lives of people pushing the economy in a downward spiral. Syria saw millions of its citizens fleeing the country. In the midst of intense internal turmoil, Assad stayed put in his throne thanks to Russian armed intervention and Trump-led scaling down of American armed intervention in the bloody conflict. Since then Syria has been bleeding, although the militant groups have scaled down their operations.
Due to long years of internal armed conflict, Syrian economy has been in a shambles. Its currency, the Syrian pound, has lost nearly 99% of its value. Its foreign exchange reserve is a paltry 200m USD, just enough to pay for a month’s imports. Syria’s crude oil capacity is now a quarter of what it was before the ruinous strife started. So, export earnings from the petroleum sector is nil now. The agricultural sector faces a similar malady. Harvests have fallen dramatically. From being an exporter of agricultural products, Syria now needs to import food grain to feed its people. Nearly half of the buildings in the country’s towns and cities have been destroyed by internecine warfare continuing for years.
To make matters worse for the HTS leadership, there are military outfits of very different loyalties operating across the country. There are the Kurds who enjoy limited patronage of the U.S. Then, there are groups who owe their loyalty to Turkey. Turkey treats the Kurd outfits as its sworn enemy. There are Al-Qaeda groups operating side by side with outfits sponsored by Saudi Arabia. All these diverse groups have chunks of Syrian territory under their control. Bringing these groups under a single government’s umbrella will be a daunting task for the HTS. The rebuilding of the ravaged country can’t proceed with the country disunited and in disarray.
Syria will need nearly 70 billion USD or more for its reconstruction. Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, can’t give any help. China, with its slowing economy, shows little interest in Syria’s rebuilding. European powers are passing through hard times and can offer only limited assistance to Syria, although they have agreed to lift their sanctions on Syria. So, financial help can come only from the U.S. and the wealthy Arab countries. Syria has already approached the latter. They remain non-committal.
To demonstrate its liberal and professional approach in governance, the HTS leadership has appointed a woman as the head of its central bank. She was the deputy governor of the bank under Assad’s regime. HTS recognized her professional talent and elevated her to the top post.
The coming weeks and months will be crucial for Syria. If it can secure international assistance quickly and fast-track its reconstruction plans, good days will come. On the other hand, if Syria flounders in its re-building efforts, it will involuntarily invite the IS groups. Let’s hope this does not happen.
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